SACH2019
A set of scenarios is used which consider the possible future developments in the Swiss and European electricity sector on (i) supply side, (ii) demand side, and (iii) network side.
In the first set of variants, possible supply-side developments are considered as examples to obtain an estimate of how they affect the security of supply. The following basic directions are considered:
(i) Accelerated increase in renewable energies in Switzerland ... (r)
(ii) Early decommissioning of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) in France ... (f)
(iii) Coal phase-out in Germany ... (d)
(iv) Combination of the NPP and Coal phase-out ... (fd)
In the second set of variants, the development on the demand side have been examined in more detail. The current expectation for the future development of energy supply sees a central role for the electricity sector. In both the mobility and heat supply sectors, an increase in the share of electricity (e.g. through increased use of heat pumps and electric cars) is assumed with an annual demand growth rate of 1.25% from 2025 on (s).
In the third set of variants, network related developments are considered as: 10-year delay in
- network expansion measures ...(g), and
- net import restrictions ... (n)
Results:
- Base Scenarios: Minor problems in 2040
- Scenarios with combinations of variations in supply and demand:
- Switzerland
- 2025 - 2035: No significant supply problems
- 2040: Minor problems
- (n) and (g) increases ENS for Switzerland but (n) is more relevant for CH (Importance of integration of CH in European System)
- European System
- 2025: Minor problems
- 2030 - 2040: Increasing problems with ENS
- 2035 - 2040: RCM becomes critical negative in ALL scenarios.
- (g) increases ENS for European System
external pageFinal report (2.9 MB, pdf, German)
