Scenario Analysis for AXPO Power Switcher
The purpose of this project is twofold.
First, this project aims to validate the methodology and results obtained in Power Switcher, which are based on monthly energy balances neglecting hourly fluctuations in electricity demand and supply, against the results of the multi-energy economic dispatch tool FlexECO, which uses optimal hourly dispatch to match electricity demand and supply throughout the year.
Second, this project aims to critically and independently evaluate Axpo’s findings, refine and expand the sensitivity analysis, and provide deeper insights into the benefits, trade-offs, and risks associated with each option considered to reduce the winter gap. In addition to the four capacity expansion options investigated by Axpo (wind, nuclear, gas, and solar), the project can optionally consider cost-benefit analyses of complementary technologies, such as: expansion of energy storage (pumped hydro, batteries), sector coupling of electricity with other energy carriers (hydrogen and/or synthetic methane), and demand-side flexibility.
The results of this project, should provide concrete answers to the following question: To what extent is the security of supply ensured in these scenarios for Switzerland, also in extreme cases?
Switzerland is making a significant commitment to renewable energy, targeting an annual generation from renewable sources of 35 TWh by 2035 and 45 TWh by 2050. However, despite these ambitious expansion plans, the country’s reliance on electricity imports, particularly during the colder months (October to March), is projected to increase. According to Axpo’s estimations, by 2045, Switzerland may import up to 16 TWh of electricity each winter to cover demand, far exceeding the politically established limit of 5 TWh. This growing winter gap highlights the potential need for additional domestic power generation to ensure long-term energy security.
Achieving this goal will require a diversified approach, as current developments indicate that existing expansion plans for solar, hydropower, and wind may not be sufficient to bridge the gap. Additionally, Switzerland must consider the risks posed by extreme winter conditions, which could further strain the electricity system. Beyond security of supply, key challenges include maintaining affordability for consumers, integrating new generation capacity into the grid, and ensuring that any new energy solutions align with Switzerland’s net-zero carbon ambitions. Addressing these issues effectively will be crucial in determining the country’s energy future and reducing its dependence on foreign electricity during critical hours.
Adding to the complexity, multiple uncertainties will shape Switzerland’s energy future. The pace of technological advancements, regulatory changes, and public acceptance of new projects remain uncertain. International energy markets also play a crucial role, as Switzerland’s ability to import electricity depends on neighboring countries’ own supply-demand balance, grid constraints, and geopolitical developments. Moreover, unforeseen events, such as economic fluctuations, climate change impacts, or policy shifts, could disrupt long-term planning.
To address these issues, Axpo has been exploring four different options to enhance the winter power generation capacity and reduce the dependence on imported electricity:
- expansion of wind energysources,
- construction of new nuclear plants,
- increased reliance on gas-fired power plants,
- enhanced expansion of solar energy sources.
These options are evaluated within Power Switcher, Axpo’s tool for evaluation and visualization of Swiss energy development scenarios. This tool determines monthly energy balances by analyzing electricity generation from installed capacities and historical generation profiles and electricity demand from various sectors. Additionally, Power Switcher allows the user to perform sensitivity analysis by tuning input parameters, such as capacity factors of renewables, temperature-related demand, availability of gas supply and French nuclear power, and limitation of transfer capacities between Switzerland and the neighboring countries.
- Gather relevant data from Axpo and external sources, such as TYNDP 2024.
- Harmonize key assumptions and define the scenario framework for analysis to ensure con-sistency.
- Validation of Power Switcher’s methodology and results.
- Analysis of reference and sensitivity scenarios to test the performance of each option in termsof reducing the winter gap, i.e. the amount of imported electricity during winter, under differentconditions and assumptions. In addition, each option will be evaluated according to three keyperformance indicators (KPIs): security of supply, cost-effectiveness, and sustainability.
In-house tool FlexECO will be used for implementation.